Looking at the mobile industry in mid 2010 could be a very fascinating experience. The world is buzzing over the newest iPhone, Smartphones are everywhere, there is even now talk about “Super Phones”. But it isn`t. At least for some. For those interested not in the current state, but the future, I will share with you my vision of what I think will happen in the mobile landscape in the coming years.
In mid 2010, most of the things many considered impossible just a few years ago are now a reality. Mobile devices have evolved in a tremendous way. A fast data connection is available in many countries. Many services are now accessible via a mobile app or via a mobile browser. Many even talk about hyperconnectivity. However, we are still at the very beginning. The current discussion about apps, the future of Nokia or the growth of Android are only relevant for the immediate future. Most of the things said especially about Nokia or the mobile activities of Microsoft must be seen in a much larger context that stretches out far in the future.
So what future do I envision? Let me explain. What we currently observe is the golden age of handsets. Handset more or less the way they were introduced to the wide public some fifteen years ago. They have evolved quite a bit and will continue to do so for the next three to five years. We will see even better cameras, higher resolution displays, more data storage or more refined user interfaces. We will continue to use more and more services on a mobile device, either via apps or more and more with our HTML5 browsers. We will also see more and more use of cloud based services. But this evolution will climax to a point were there is little to no room for improvement, at least in the way we think about phones the way we did in the last fifteen years. We will reach a plateau with only minor improvements. This will not last for long, maybe several months or a year or two at best. This will mark the end of the infancy of the mobile industry.
What comes next will change our lifes more than any other technical development in the history of mankind. It will change not only the way we communicate, do business or consume. It will change the way we perceive the world around us and thus ultimately the way we think about reality and ourselves. If the next five to seven years are dominated by cloud based services, the clouds will go away. The clouds will be replaced by fog. A fog consisting of data. We will enter the age of Fog Computing and the age of the internet of things will begin to take over.
Like its counterpart in nature, this data fog will come quite fast, but without much warning or noise. It has to. Like real fog, it will be more dominant in certain areas first. Real fog is often found first at some lakes. The very same will happen with Fog Computing. It will first emerge at Airports, inner cities or other isolated areas. But it won`t stop there. It will crawl into other areas and finally cover every object. It will enclose buildings, cars, streets and more and more the whole surrounding. It won`t disguise these objects totally. But their contours will disappear. It will not be easy to tell were something begins or ends or to which something belongs. The fog will be accompanied by a certain silence. Some people will be get frightened. But they will learn to deal with it. They will adopt and finally value its quiteness and calmness.
Like humidity covers us when moving through a dense fog, we will collect small drops of information when moving through the data fog. Like we need different clothes for a pleasent and dry walk in the fog, we will need new techniques that keep us warm and dry from the data fog. Since the water drops in fog are so small and pervasive, we will need to be very careful to not let this fog get to close to our skin, hence our intimate privacy. Shady figures will use the fog to hide.
So why should we accept to live in the fog? The sky was clouded before, but at least we saw our environment quite clearly and even the sun from time to time. Because Fog Computing is the only way to free ourselves from the limitations mobile communication in its current incarnation has imposed on us since the beginning. There are simply too many physical limitations. Even a 4″ or 4,3″ screen pales in comparism to the size of the displays that surround us everywhere, at work or at home. Why not use these instead? Why not use windows as projection areas? Battery life is a serious serious problem on every high-end phone. The space in a mobile device is ultimately limited, even if the battery technology advances. Why not use wireless power? It is absolutely ridicolous to put processors with several GHz in a mobile device. Why do we need these chips to decode and encode high-definition video material when there are hundreds of millions of dedicated chips that are far more efficient already exising in DVD or BluRay players? Why not connect to those and let them do this work, especially when they are not used most of the time and sitting in stand-by mode? The internet of things will lead us to a distributed processing power unthinkable of today.
Why does the user need an app for every single task? Why does he need to choose this app all by himself? Why doesn`t this happen automatically and depending on the current location, date and user habits? There is an app for that, but there shouldn`t be the need to select which one. All you need is a fast internet connection and a device that is fully aware of its context, its surroundings, both physically and mentally, in which its user is acting. Only Fog Computing can provide us with the underlying infrastructure.
The basic technical requirements are already exsiting or will be ready in the foreseeable future. There is just on thing missing: A system, a company or a standard that is acting as the bonding for the internet of things. The leading company which is able to provide this bonding will be the most powerful und profitable enterprise in the next twenty to 30 years. Which one it will be? I honestly don`t know.
I can only think of four companies able to dominate the internet of things. The first one is Microsoft. Windows phone 7 looks very promising and I think that Microsoft has understood that the main object in the coming years is to overcome the app-centric approach and put the user and not an app in the center. This will be one step towards Fog Computing. Microsoft certainly also has the necessary ressources to pull this off. If they can execute remains a question.
The second one is Nokia. Nokia has expressed at several occasions that their vision for the future of mobile communication is very close to what I have envisioned above. Putting NFC in every new MeeGo smartphone is a first small step. I think that many underestimate Nokia at this point in 2010. They completely repositioned themselves not only to counter the app attack, but prepared themselves for the war over the internet of things. This is what I think Anssi Vanjoki meant when he said the fight back has started. The fight is not about a small niche dominated by the iPhone, but about the way we communicate and live in the upcoming decades. As I already wrote, Nokia is preparing for this war and is quite well positioned.
Next is Google. I personally rate Google as the most powerful company on this planet, because it more or less absolutely dominates the way we access the most valuable material which is information. Fog Computing is nothing else than a very different way to access information. Android and especially Chromium make a lot of sence when you think of Fog Computing.
The last one is the wild card. Facebook and its social graph could also play a very important role for the internet of things, because what is if even more valuable than information itself is the context and the relation to other information. Especially when everything is connected to everything.
Or we will see a new Microsoft or Google emerge. A company that embraces the idea of Fog Computing and comes up with a totally new way of delivering the bonds between connected devices and people. Interesting times, nevertheless.
