So the newest rumour floating around is that Nokia is in talks with Microsoft in order to adopt Windows Phone 7. Eldar Murtazin may be a well connected and mostly credible source. However, in this case, I think he is wrong and I don`t think that Nokia will introduce a Windows Phone 7 handset in the (near) future. In this regards, I am way more in line with Tomi Ahonen. But we can be wrong, so let`s have a look and see what said alliance could bring to the mobile landscape.
First, why would Nokia want to adopt Windows Phone 7? The reason is simple: If the rumour is true, Nokia is certain that MeeGo powered handsets are seriously delayed. I don`t think that Nokia would axe MeeGo completely, but it obviously would need an interims solution until some real high-end MeeGo devices are ready. This timeline is also the most important point why I don`t think that Nokia will go for Windows Phone 7. Although I like conpiracy theories, I highly doubt that Nokia has secretly developed a Windows Phone 7 handset that is ready to ship in the near future. I simply don`t think that Nokia is able to finish a Windows Phone 7 handset before MeeGo is ready, which will be in 2011. Even if this means the end of 2011, given the normal development cycle, the alleged Windows Phone 7 handset would have been nearly completely developed and ready to ship in the upcoming weeks. It doesn`t make sense to develop a phone on a totally new platform just for several quarters. It would make more sense if Nokia decides to cancel MeeGO altogether, but this seems also highly unlikely. And given the fairly high hardware requirements put in place by Microsoft, we can almost completely rule out the possibility of seeing Windows Phone 7 as a replacement for Symbian. No, based on my (limited) knowledge, it just doesn`t make any sense. I can very well imagine that Nokia is looking at Windows Phone 7 and Android as a back-up solution should MeeGo seriously struggle and finally fail, but I don`t think that Nokia decides about the fate of MeeGo even before it has hit the market.
However, let`s put the MeeGo concerns aside and assume that MeeGo doesn`t exist at all. Now things look different. Although I like Symbian, it is quite obvious that it shows its age as a solution for the high-end segment at the end of 2010. It is very well suited for the lower, midrange and even the higher-midrange segment. But not for the „Superphone league“. I am not only talking about an „iPhone killer“ handset, but something that can pick up the fight and compete with phones lilke the upcoming LG Star or the Nexus S not only on a hardware level, but also on the software side. So what could Nokia do? The first option would be to go the way many have gone in the last two years and adopte Android. I consider this the least possible solution. The reason is again very simple. In the past, Nokia was a traditional handset maker that made phones, much like HTC, LG and (for the most part) Samsung still do. In this case, Android would have been the most obvious and reasonable solution, because Nokia could have provided the hardware and let Google do the rest (OS, services). But Nokia has become much more. It has also become a service seller. I don`t want to discuss in this post whether this was a smart move or not, it is now a given fact. Nokia`s solutions go head to head with most Android services. Nokia has invested billions of billions of dollars to built its own maps, its own app store or its own messaging solution. In theory, it would be possible to write-off the complete Ovi-system, but I just can`t imagine that Nokia would do this. Or, Nokia could keep the Ovi ecosystem alive for the sake of symbian. This would mean that Nokia would have to maintain two completely different ecosystems. Or, Nokia could try to integrate parts of the Ovi ecosystem into Android. Given the open nature of Android, we are already seeing alternative app stores or email-solutions emerging. So I don`t think it would be impossible to do, but very hard to achieve. Another question that remains would be if the final solution would really be that much more useful for consumers than Symbian, but this is also another story.
So this leaves Windows Phone 7 as an alternative. Although Microsoft has its own services, the core business model of Windows Phone 7 is selling the OS and not its associated services. This is competely different to the Google / Android business model, where Google is giving the OS away for free in order to make money indirectly through advertising on their services. So the Microsoft business model stands much less in the way of Nokia`s new hardware plus service strategy. In addition to this, the fundamental architecture of Windows Phone 7 should make it easier for Nokia to integrate parts of the existing Nokia or Ovi ecosystem into the new OS. There are already LG or Samsung restricted parts of the Windows marketplace in existence. A Nokia-only area isn`t too far stretched. HTC is doing something similar with its HTC live tile ub. Having the pleasure of using an LG Optimus 7 for some time now, Windows Phone 7 also seems to be much more in the direction of „giving the people more heads-up time“ that Nokia tries to achieve with MeeGo.
However, there is a fundamental problem with Nokia going for Windows Phone 7. I don`t think it would be enough. Nokia would be competing with other Windows Phone 7 handsets. And these are good phones. In fact, besides the camera, I can`t think of many areas where a Nokia phone would be superior to e.g. an LG Optimus 7. It would remain to be seen if the added value by Nokia would be enough (I doubt it).
The biggest problem Nokia has at the moment is a problem of perception. Nokia phones are considered not only by the consumer, but also by the media, as completely inferior and dated, which isn`t true for the most part. So if Nokia arrives to the table with a Windows Phone 7 handset, why should consumers choose Nokia over LG, Samsung or HTC? The brand name obviuosly isn`t much of a selling point at the monemt. This is especially true for North America, but becoming more and more a problem in other areas also.
And this is my main argument against the rumour. For many, Nokia is already doomed. I don`t think so. But Nokia must deliver with MeeGo. It must introduce a truly revolutionary way of interacting. Not only a new mobile OS, but a whole new way of dealing with all kinds of information and data. Not so much because of the inevitable challenges we are facing in the future, but because of the sake of the reception of the brand „Nokia“. It must be so good that even the most ignorant iPhone-crazy media, analysts and finally the consumers can`t ignore the innovation and greatness. Simply introducing a nice high-end Android or Windows Phone 7 handset just wouldn`t cut under these circumstances anymore. This is the reason why I think Nokia would at least give MeeGo a try. The iceberg is in sight, the course is changed, the ship is turning. Still, it looks as if the largest handset maker will make it around once again. If not, the lifeboats, Android and Windows Phone 7, are standing by. But there is still no reason to issue the lifevests. Not yet. Interesting times, nevertheless.
